Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
